There has been substantial debate lately on the large domain name discussion forums about the long term potential of ‘short domains’, such as 4 letter dot com domain names and L-L-L.com domains. This debate has been ignited in recent months by the registration of the last 4 letter .com domains and the registration of the last remaining five character .com domains consisting of three letters with hyphens in between e.g. A-B-C.com.
These domains are generally trading at values well over their registration fee. With four letter .net domains looking possibly like the next to to become fully registered, no one is sure how this one is going to end. LL-L.coms and L-LL.coms are also disappearing quickly.
Learning from the past……..
The experience of domainers who bought up stocks of 3 letter .coms might be an example of what might happen with other short domains. Those with the inspiration, vision or sheer luck in 1999 and 2000 to buy 3 letter .com domain names early on, when 3 letter domains were still available to buy at or around normal registration fee, are now sitting on a fortune. With an average price of more than $6,000 per name, someone who invested in 1,000 3 letter .com domains for around $10,000 or $20,000 would be sitting on a cool $6,000,000. (Less 8 years of renewal fees at say, $10,000 per year)
This time its different - or is it?
Like any goldrush there are those who say that this time it is different and there is no money to be made. The thing is that they might be right! They might argue that four letter domains are not as desirable as 3 letter ones. They might say that only four letter domains containing premium letters will be worth something. Domains with hyphens are less popular than domains without hyphens, say others. Others dismiss the whole thing, preferring to put their money into generics or site development. Regardless, within 12 months I predict that all L-L-L.nets and L-LL.com / LL-L.com domains will be registered.
Everyone wants a short domain
In my opinion everyone likes a short memorable domain and these types of domains will meet the needs of some end users. Does this mean that we will see the opportunities for profits similar to those seen for LLL.coms. I doubt it, but only time will tell.
There are no cast iron guarantees!
What domainers on both sides of the arguement want are cast iron guarantees that their point of view is correct. Unfortunately, the domaining business is not like that.
Domainers buy domains speculatively without having a buyer waiting for that domain. They may buy in anticipation of the topic of the domain becoming popular, relating to future trends or relevant to tecnological developments at some point in the future. However, there is rarely the opportunity to buy with a complete picture of what is going on. Domainers have to live with a certain amount of uncertainty. Like poker players betting after only two cards have been dealt that their hand is still going to be the best after all five cards have been dealt, domainers are betting that their names will be a profitable investment for them in the future. Like domainers poker players speculate on the most likely outcomes based on what they know at the time. The thing is, they put their money on the table to back up what they think. No one knows which short domains are likely to appreciate in price and which will not. However, like poker players we domainers have to have strength and integrity to put our money on the table if that’s what we believe. Its our decision, its our loss or its our victory - but whatever we do we have got to follow our heart.
